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‘OUR ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE’- why Britain’s heatwaves are going to get worse
This episode of The Fourcast discusses the UK’s lack of preparedness for extreme heat and climate change, featuring insights from climate governance expert Professor Rebecca Willis, environmental lawyer Tessa Khan, and architect Smith Mordak.
Key Discussion Points:
- Infrastructure Challenges: The UK’s housing stock and infrastructure, often designed for colder climates, are struggling with record-breaking temperatures. Experts advocate for systemic, strategic solutions like retrofitting buildings with insulation and heat pumps rather than relying solely on individual, short-term solutions like air conditioning (1:36 - 3:13, 32:19 - 33:16).
- The Political Disconnect: While the public is increasingly concerned about climate change and supportive of government action, there is a disconnect with political leadership. Politicians often underestimate this support and fear the cost of transition, despite evidence that climate action is economically beneficial in the long term (4:49 - 7:28, 15:05 - 19:32).
- Economic Strategy: The panelists argue that transitioning away from fossil fuels is not just an environmental imperative but an economic one, citing lower costs of renewable energy and the growth of green jobs (8:15 - 10:41, 23:36 - 24:10).
- Adaptation Strategies: Short-term resilience can be improved through better urban planning—such as creating more green and blue spaces to combat the urban heat island effect—and by fostering community-level cooperation for energy efficiency (36:05 - 37:36, 40:47 - 41:25).
The discussion concludes with an emphasis on the “quiet majority” of the public who are ready for change and the need for clear, consistent government leadership to steer the UK toward a more resilient, fair, and sustainable future.
here is a breakdown of what a homeowner of typical 1930s solid/cavity wall homes can do, split by internal and external loci of control.
Internal Locus of Control (Direct Adaptation for a 1930s House)
The internal locus of control focuses on immediate, tangible actions you can take to adapt your own property to rising temperatures and extreme weather without relying on energy-intensive air conditioning. 1930s homes in the UK are notorious for retaining heat in the summer and losing it in the winter.
- Passive Shading: Install external shutters, awnings, or blinds on south- and west-facing windows. Blocking solar radiation before it passes through the glass is highly effective at preventing the greenhouse effect inside your home.
- Strategic Ventilation: Practice “purge ventilation” by opening windows wide at night or early in the morning when the outdoor air is cooler than inside. Keep windows and curtains closed during the hottest parts of the day to trap the cooler air inside.
- Insulation and Retrofitting: Upgrade loft insulation and consider solid wall insulation (either internal or external). While insulation is traditionally associated with keeping a house warm, it acts as a barrier that keeps extreme heat out during intense summer heatwaves.
- De-paving and Greening: Replace hard standing ground (like concrete or asphalt driveways) with permeable surfaces, grass, or rain gardens. This combats the localized “urban heat island effect” around your home and improves drainage during sudden, heavy summer downpours.
- Nature-Based Shading: Plant deciduous trees or climbing plants (like ivy or wisteria) on the sunny sides of the house. They provide shade and cooling through evapotranspiration in the summer, but drop their leaves in the winter to let natural light and warmth in.
External Locus of Control (Systemic Action, Geopolitics, and Global Adaptation)
The external locus of control addresses how you, as an individual, can influence the wider systemic, political, and global drivers of climate change, especially given the current geopolitical skepticism and the urgent need to pivot toward adaptation.
- Community-Level Cooperation: Engage in or initiate local community energy and adaptation schemes. As highlighted in your note, fostering community-level cooperation for energy efficiency and local green spaces builds collective resilience that individual action cannot match.
- Civic and Political Advocacy: Lobby local MPs and councilors to prioritize climate adaptation policies, such as upgrading local flood defenses, retrofitting social housing, and mandating heat-resilient building standards for new developments.
- Financial Divestment: Shift your personal finances, savings, and pensions toward green funds that refuse to finance fossil fuel expansion. Consumer pressure on financial institutions remains one of the most direct ways to influence global capital.
- Supporting Adaptation-First Initiatives: Since global mitigation efforts are lagging due to geopolitical headwinds, redirect your advocacy and charitable support toward organizations focusing on climate adaptation, infrastructure resilience, and disaster preparedness both in the UK and in more vulnerable nations globally.
Practical Retrofits
Smith Mordak (during their tenure as CEO) and the UK Green Building Council (UKGBC) have actively developed and advocated for practical solutions specifically targeting the UK’s aged housing stock to address climate change.
Their approach focuses on retrofitting existing homes to be net zero and climate-resilient, recognizing that 80% of the current stock will still be in use in 2050.
Key Practical Solutions and Initiatives
1. “Upgrading Britain’s Homes” Campaign Under Mordak’s leadership, UKGBC launched this major campaign to persuade political parties to invest in fixing “leaky, draughty homes.” The campaign frames retrofit not just as a net zero necessity but as a solution to the housing crisis, health issues, and fuel poverty. It calls for a National Retrofit Strategy to coordinate scaled-up investment and policy.
2. Local Area Retrofit Accelerator (LARA) To address the practical delivery gap, UKGBC developed the LARA ‘Getting Started Toolkit’. This is a practical guide for Local Authority officers to build business cases and deliver retrofit facilitation services. It supports a “place-based” approach, helping communities co-create local retrofit strategies rather than relying solely on top-down mandates.
- 3. Practical Guidance and Tools from UKGBC later UKGBC provides specific technical resources for dealing with older buildings:
- Retrofit Practical Guide: Outlines key principles such as taking a “whole-building approach,” planning long-term strategies aligned with maintenance cycles, and minimizing whole-life carbon. It explicitly addresses the risks of working with existing buildings.
- Home Retrofit Investment Calculator: A tool created to allow policymakers and the public to model the investment and policies needed for a national upgrade, making the financial case for retrofit tangible.
- Commercial Retrofit Workstream: Provides guidance on developing “Overarching Retrofit Strategies” for non-domestic buildings, reframing retrofit as an iterative process rather than a one-off project.
- Passive Stack Ventilation
- Heat Loop but this will mean with other houses in the neighbourhood
4. Innovative Financing: Retrofit Credits UKGBC has explored and promoted innovative financing models like Retrofit Credits (developed by HACT). This scheme allows organizations to buy carbon credits that directly fund social housing retrofits. This fills the funding gap for homes that are already “decent” (e.g., EPC band C) but still need deep decarbonization measures like heat pumps and insulation, which standard government funds often miss.
5. Climate Resilience Roadmap Beyond just carbon reduction, Mordak championed the Climate Resilience Roadmap, the UK’s first evidence-based pathway to prepare the built environment for extreme weather. For aged housing, this means practical adaptations to handle overheating (via ventilation and shutters) and flooding, ensuring older properties remain safe and habitable in a changing climate.
Mariana Mazzucato “mission” to upgrade homes needs a UK leader and government that “get it” - mission economy